IN THE United States, immigration and border security have suddenly become hot issues in the 2016 presidential campaign. Recent controversies over Middle Eastern refugees and terrorist threats have only deepened the political divide on the subject, writes World Review expert Dr. James Jay Carafano.
Few would have predicted that immigration would be a top-tier issue in the 2016 American presidential campaign. Nearly a decade of arguing over reform has produced little more than a stalemate. After failing to deliver on a major overhaul of immigration that would have included granting amnesty to millions of people unlawfully present in the U.S., President Barack Obama opted to implement a broad legalization process through executive order. A federal judge blocked the move, and a petition to uphold the injunction has been filed with the U.S. Supreme Court. But even if it rules in the president’s favor, Mr. Obama will have little time to implement the plan before his term ends in January 2017.
Immigration is a particularly vexing issue for American politicians. But while the media often portray it in terms of a left-right political controversy, the realities of the U.S. electorate are more nuanced.
It is true that the gap between Republicans and Democrats is widening. In a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, for example, Democrats surveyed were twice as likely as Republicans to believe immigration is good for the country. However, regional and local distinctions can heavily influence policymakers’ attitudes. In recent decades, immigration reform bills have failed regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats have been in control of the legislative and executive branches – or under any other conceivable combination.
Even support from Hispanic coalitions and business advocacy groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has had little effect. Public attitudes only seem to have become more entrenched, not less.
With so few minds to be changed, candidates would seem to have little to gain by trumpeting their stands on the campaign trail. A spate of high-profile controversies over accepting refugees fleeing the crisis in Syria and implementing travel restrictions after the terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, California, have complicated the debate. Moreover, issues regarding non-immigrant travel, such as potentially expanding the Visa Waiver Program, tend to be conflated with immigration reform in the public consciousness.
The public discourse over immigration reached fever pitch in December 2015 when Mr. Trump called for an outright ban on Muslims entering the U.S. While his proposal was wildly controversial, the announcement did little to dampen his popularity. Still, not all Republicans favor Mr. Trump, who is viewed negatively by many across the political spectrum. His highly publicized stand on immigration does not necessarily reflect a shift in public attitudes.
The go-slow approach to reform will have a global impact on both immigrant and non-immigrant travel programs. For example, countries that want to join the Visa Waiver Program – including Poland and Croatia – cannot be optimistic that it will be expanded any time soon. Meanwhile, nations looking for modest adjustments, such as New Zealand, which has long sought eligibility for its citizens to receive special investor visas, should also not hold their breath. The good news is that it is equally unlikely that major restrictions will be added to U.S. visa policies.
Nevertheless, demands for additional layers of security in visa and immigration processing will likely grow louder. Such measures would include more information sharing, as well as more collection and retention of travelers’ biometric data. This will create tension between the U.S. and the European Union, which has long favored protection of privacy over the security benefits of data sharing.
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Publication Date:
Tue, 2016-01-12 06:00
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